Gacha Pull Calculator
How likely are you to get it with the pulls you have?
chance of getting the one you want in 80 pulls
Worst case, you are certain to have it by pull 160.
Ok, the banner ends on Sunday and I've got 80 pulls saved. Will that be enough for the character I want? Let's work it out. In this game I spend currency on pulls, which are a bit like opening a mystery pack. Most of them give me nothing special. The big prizes are rare: only 0.6% of pulls.
To stop people spending forever, the game has a safety net: if I haven't won by pull 90, I'm guaranteed one. My chances also creep up once I get close, from pull 74. I'm already 20 pulls into that count, so I'm 70 pulls from the guarantee.
And even a rare win is only 50% likely to be the one I want. Players call that the 50/50. If I lose it, my next rare win is guaranteed to be the right one.
That gives me a 59% chance of the character I want, so a bit better than a coin flip.
To be 90% sure I'd need 136 pulls, and that's a lot more than I've got. If I lose the 50/50, I could need up to 160 to be certain.
I'll do the first ten and see how it goes.
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A gacha game is one where you spend currency, earned or bought, on a random reward: a character, a weapon, an item. Each try is called a pull, a bit like opening a pack of trading cards. The rare prizes people want come up only a small percentage of the time. This calculator works out how likely you are to get the one you want with the pulls you have, how many pulls it takes to be 90% sure, and what that costs.
What the boxes mean
- Chance of the top prize: the chance of the rarest prize on a single pull, before any pity.
- Hard pity: the pull where the game guarantees a top prize. If you have not won by then, you win on that pull.
- Soft pity: the pull where your chance starts to climb, and how much it climbs each pull after that.
- Chance a top prize is the one you want: many games give you only a 50% chance that a top prize is the featured one, so half the time it is a different one.
- Guarantee: in many games, if you lose that 50/50, your next top prize is certain to be the one you want.
- Pulls since your last top prize: pity usually carries on counting from your last win, so enter what you have already done.
How it's worked out
- It follows your pulls one at a time. On each pull it works out the chance of a top prize from how many pulls you have done since your last one.
- If soft pity applies, that chance rises on every pull after it starts. At hard pity, it is 100%.
- When you win, it checks whether it is the one you want. If not, and there is a guarantee, your next win is certain to be it.
- It adds up every way you could have got the one you want, pull by pull. The answer is exact, not a guess from a simulation.
With a 1% chance on every pull and no pity, 100 pulls give you a chance of 1 minus 0.99 to the power of 100, which is 63.4%.
Your chances at a glance
| Pulls | Chance of the one you want |
|---|---|
| 10 | 3% |
| 20 | 5.99% |
| 30 | 8.96% |
| 40 | 11.9% |
| 50 | 14.8% |
| 60 | 17.7% |
| 70 | 20.5% |
| 75 | 27.5% |
| 80 | 51% |
| 85 | 57.2% |
| 90 | 59.4% |
| 100 | 63.4% |
| 120 | 70.5% |
| 150 | 80% |
| 180 | over 99.99% |
Starting from no pulls saved, with a 0.6% top prize, soft pity from pull 74 rising 6% a pull, hard pity at 90 and a 50/50 with a guarantee behind it. Several popular games use rates like these, but yours may differ, and the soft pity numbers are community estimates.
Common mistakes
- Using a rate you guessed. Games publish theirs, and special banners can differ, so check the game's own rate screen.
- Starting from zero when you have pity saved up. Enter the pulls you have already done since your last top prize.
- Forgetting you lost the last 50/50. If you did, tick the box, because your next top prize is guaranteed.
- Treating 90% as certain. It still fails one time in ten, so if missing out would hurt, plan around 99%.
- Counting pulls you cannot make yet. Count only the pulls you can really do before the banner ends.
Questions
What is a gacha game?
It is a type of game, mostly on phones and consoles, where you spend in-game currency on a random reward. The currency can be earned by playing or bought with real money. Each go is called a pull, and the game publishes how often each prize comes up.
What is pity in a gacha game?
Pity is a safety net. If you pull for long enough without getting a top prize, the game guarantees one. The pull where that happens is called hard pity.
What is soft pity?
Soft pity is where your chance of a top prize starts to rise before you reach hard pity. It means most players win a little before the guaranteed pull.
What is the 50/50?
In many games a top prize is only 50% likely to be the featured one. If you lose that 50/50, the game often guarantees that your next top prize is the one you wanted. You can switch that on in the calculator.
Where do I find my game's rates?
Most games show them on a drop rate or probability screen in the shop or banner menu. Use those numbers for the top prize chance and the pity pull.
Does pity carry over between banners?
It depends on the game. In some, your pity carries from one banner to the next, and in others it resets. Check how yours works before you enter a number.
Is this exact or an estimate?
For the numbers you enter, it is exact. It does not run a simulation, it works out every possibility. The soft pity start and the rise per pull that many players quote are community estimates, so treat those two numbers as approximate.
Pulls saved? Spend a minute on something with better odds.