Drop Rate Luck Checker
Is the game against you, or are you just unlucky?
chance of getting nothing in 80 tries
Unlucky. Annoying, and still well within what luck can do.
To have a 50% chance of at least one drop you need about 14 tries, for 90% about 45, and for 99% about 90.
Ok, is this just bad luck? Let's work it out. I've killed this boss 80 times and the item still hasn't dropped. It's supposed to be a 5% drop.
That feels wrong. But the chance of getting nothing in 80 tries is 1 in 61.
So I'm unlucky, and not impossibly so. One player in every 61 is having this exact week.
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Every gamer has had it: you take on the same boss again and again and the item never drops. Enter the drop rate you were told, how many times you tried and what you got. This works out how unlikely your result was, so you can tell bad luck from a drop rate that might be wrong.
How it's worked out
- Each try has the same chance of a drop, and one try does not change the next.
- It adds up the chance of every result as bad as yours or worse, such as 0, 1, 2 and so on up to the drops you got.
- That total is how unlikely your run was. "1 in 60" means about one player in 60 would have a run this bad.
With a 5% drop rate and 80 tries, getting nothing has a chance of 0.95 to the power of 80, which is 1.65%. That is about 1 in 61.
How many tries it takes at common drop rates
| Drop rate | Rate | Tries for 50% | Tries for 90% | Tries for 99% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 1 in 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 25% | 1 in 4 | 3 | 9 | 17 |
| 10% | 1 in 10 | 7 | 22 | 44 |
| 5% | 1 in 20 | 14 | 45 | 90 |
| 2% | 1 in 50 | 35 | 114 | 228 |
| 1% | 1 in 100 | 69 | 230 | 459 |
| 0.5% | 1 in 200 | 139 | 460 | 919 |
| 0.1% | 1 in 1,000 | 693 | 2,302 | 4,603 |
Tries needed before the chance of seeing at least one drop reaches that level. Each try is separate, and the game has no pity.
Common mistakes
- Only counting the bad stretch. Put in every try, not just the ones since the last drop.
- Searching until something looks unlucky. If you check lots of different items, one of them will always look very unlucky.
- Using a rate you have not seen written down. If the rate is a guess, the answer is a guess too.
- Thinking you are due a drop. Each try has the same chance, however many you have missed, unless the game has pity.
- Mixing up what the rate is for. A rate can be per kill, per run or per player, so count your tries the same way.
Questions
Is a 1% drop rate really 1 in 100?
Yes, on average. It does not mean you get one every 100 tries. At 1%, there is about a 37% chance of getting nothing in 100 tries, so more than one player in three will.
Why can I fail 100 times at a 1% drop?
Because each try is separate. Missing 99 times does not make the 100th more likely to drop. Some games add pity on top, which this tool does not include.
Can this tell me the drop rate is wrong?
Not on its own. A very unlikely result is a clue, not proof, because with enough players someone always has an extremely unlucky run. It gets more convincing the more tries you count.
What does "1 in 60" mean here?
It means that about one player in 60 would have a run this bad or worse. The smaller the chance, the more unusual your result is.
Does it matter how I count my tries?
Yes. Count tries the same way the drop rate is given. If it is a rate per kill, count kills. If it is per run, count runs.
Bad luck streak? Try some games with no loot boxes.